Orange Alert!

Kerry's losing ground fast, not only in Michigan (see above), but also in New Jersey and Pennsylvannia.

But if the sea change is remarkable in Michigan, the shift away from Mr. Kerry in New Jersey is nothing short of astounding. This is a state where the Democrats outnumber Republicans by better than 2-to-1, where Mr. Kerry's lead was so large that the Bush campaign simply wrote it off and the Kerry campaign took it for granted.

But independent surveys, like the Quinnipiac College poll, find the state is in a dead heat. Mr. Kerry this week had to send in Sen. John Edwards, his vice presidential running mate, to shore up support there. Moreover, the Bush campaign is rethinking whether it should put the state on its itinerary and begin running ads there.

Pennsylvania, too, has been steadily drifting away from Mr. Kerry and the polls there now have Mr. Bush only 1 point behind. Internal Bush polls show him leading there, after 36 visits to the state. Pollsters and some Democratic strategists say that shifts are coming from voters in Mr. Kerry's Democratic base, largely women concerned about terrorism and national security.