Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Obamacare Savings Uncertain

The news continues to come out, just in time to make a difference. Where was this before the vote?

“At this point, the effects of the recent legislation on federal health-care spending over the long term are uncertain, in part because they depend importantly on implementation,” Bernanke said.

Bernanke’s oblique reference to implementation would likely cover roughly $500 billion in cuts to Medicare that must be authorized by future Congresses as well as the identification of ways to deliver care that are more efficient and reduce costs. The health bill authorizes trial runs of numerous such experiments.

Robert Reischauer, the president of the Urban Institute, also addressed the fiscal commission during its first meeting. He said that “while the health reform act contains many promising demonstrations and pilot projects designed to test incentives and organizational changes that might slow spending growth, it will be more than five years before the results from these experiments can inform policy.”

Like Bernanke, Reischauer sounded some doubtful notes about the likelihood that ObamaCare will bend the cost curve of health spending down.

“Medicaid costs will rise significantly because the program plays the primary role in expanding coverage among low-income populations,” Reischauer said.

“While a recent report from UnitedHealth concludes that significant savings are possible in the program, realizing them would require adopting effective coordinated care for Medicaid’s regular population and community-base/coordinated care for Medicaid’s long term care beneficiaries.”

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