Thursday, June 14, 2012

Collapse - Part Deaux

Obama is losing support everywhere, even among blacks.This will not be a close election. I expect a Carteresque defeat for Obama. Maybe even a McGovernesque wipe out.
Yesterday, Breitbart News reported a number of polls that showed troubling signs for Team Obama; union support is down nationwide and in the states of New York and North Carolina respectively, Jewish and black support has tumbled. According to a new poll released by Gallup, these polls are apparently not statistical noise. Serious cracks are starting to show in Obama's base:

Gallup finds a deep crack in Obama support emerging among whites, still statistically by far the largest group of voters. His support among several white subgroups is down 5% now among registered voters from what it was just before the 2008 election, when he easily defeated John McCain.
These sub-sets of non-Hispanic whites include young registered voters between 18 and 29, which provided him a huge margin four years ago, well-educated women and non-religious whites, among others. Other research has shown huge percentages of Obama's money donors from 2008 withholding their money this time.
Obama's support among registered voters today is 46%, five points below what it was nearly four years ago. Whites' support is down slightly more, six points, from 44% to 38%.
Obama's support among blacks, while still overwhelming, has also dipped four points from 91% to 87%.
If Obama's support is 46% among all registered voters, that's usually a high number than what it would be with a tighter screen involving likely voters. The RCP average is currently 46%, but again five of the seven polls included in that average use registered voters.


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